{"id":5090,"date":"2023-08-19T10:54:03","date_gmt":"2023-08-19T10:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inpazure.imholding.net\/?page_id=5090"},"modified":"2023-08-19T18:35:42","modified_gmt":"2023-08-19T18:35:42","slug":"modelling-unit","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/inp.edu.eg\/en\/modelling-unit\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelling Unit"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1692445588024{padding-top: 80px !important;padding-bottom: 40px !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column][vc_row_inner content_placement=”middle”][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_single_image image=”4679″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” animation_delay=”1100″ floating_start_pos=”top”][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692443317276{margin-bottom: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 0px !important;}”]<\/p>\n

The Modelling Unit at the<\/h5>\n

Institute of National Planning (MUINP)<\/h3>\n

(2022 \u2013 2025) \/ June \u2013 2022<\/h5>\n

The Institute of National Planning has established a Modelling Unit (MUINP) since 2020. MUINP can act as an advisory entity to provide different stakeholders\/ policy makers with technical support, by using different modeling methodologies for policy analysis and forecasting. MUINP aims to apply various evidence-based methodologies, including mainly Macro -econometric models, CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) economy wide modeling, as well as System Dynamics. The main goal of MUINP is to provide the policy decision makers, at the Ministry of Planning, or other relevant Ministries with evidence-based policy alternatives.<\/p>\n

To strengthen the effective and efficient implementation of the unit, this document lays out the vision, mission, and objectives of the Modelling Unit at the Institute of National Planning (MUINP). Also, this document presents the suggested work plan and the related activities during the next 3 years.
\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

Motivation:<\/h5>\n

During the past few years, the Egyptian economy has embarked on implementing an ambitious agenda for economic structural reforms, to achieve higher GDP growth rates and enhance sustainable development goals. However, Egypt is also facing many challenges, that might hamper the steady implementation of the intended reforms. There are domestic and external challenges. Domestic challenges include for example, limited water resources and climate change, as well as other domestic constraints etc… External challenges refer to external shocks or crises such as Covid-19 pandemic, which is considered as an unprecedented health crisis with immense negative economic repercussions, leading to a worldwide economic downturn. Also recently, the Ukraine Russian war, has led to multiple economic disruptions on the global level, especially for the countries which were heavily relying on importing food products, namely wheat and cooking oil. This crisis has generated inflationary pressures worldwide. In Egypt, food prices have witnessed a notable hike during the last month, increasing by more than 30%, according to CAPMAS data.<\/p>\n

But more detailed analysis regarding the possible dynamic repercussions of such economic policies and external shocks is required to inform governments and international partners. Moreover, longer-term structures need deeper investigation and analysis to enable Egypt to be better prepared for future shocks and challenges.<\/p>\n

Hence, there is a need to conduct<\/strong> policy analysis and forecasting to support the Government of Egypt in effectively assessing economic policies and external shocks in a structured and evidence-based way. Rigorous policy analysis requires utilizing advanced methodological tools in order to provide evidence-based solutions. These tools might include using macro-econometric modelling techniques or economy wide modelling such as CGE models, that help in designing policy scenarios and simulations. In addition, System Dynamics approach will be applied.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1692445559430{padding-top: 40px !important;padding-bottom: 40px !important;background-color: #f9f9f9 !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_row_inner gap=”20″ el_class=”proud-card-boxes”][vc_column_inner el_class=”m-b-md” width=”1\/2″]

Vision and mission<\/h3><\/div>
MUIPN mission is to provide research-based advice to policy makers by conducting policy analysis and forecasting. <\/div> <\/div>

Objectives<\/h3><\/div>
MUINP aims to realize the following main goals:<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  • Strengthening the modelling skills of the MUINP Staff, by attending training courses on macro econometric, CGE modelling and Systems dynamics.<\/li>\n
  • Building a Macro-econometric model that helps in forecasting different economic variables.<\/li>\n
  • Building other complementary models to study specific important issues that may occur, for example in the field of monetary and fiscal policies, or other issues or problems that may arise.<\/li>\n
  • Forecasting the economic variables and estimating elasticities.<\/li>\n
  • Using CGE modelling for policy analysis and running simulations.<\/li>\n
  • Helping in drafting concise policy notes that are related to economic policy alternatives.<\/li>\n
  • Applying System Dynamics Approach.<\/li>\n
  • Organizing joint workshops to discuss the relevant research results, in collaboration with potential academic and international stakeholders.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    <\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″]

    MUNIP Team and Structure of the Unit<\/h3><\/div>
    A team of diligent researchers (10 lecturers, 12 teaching assistants and 5 research assistants) who are affiliated to the Institute of National Planning have already joined the MUINP, aiming to form a Policy modelling team. To accomplish the above-mentioned objectives, the MUINP will be structured in three major departments: Department 1 (Macro-econometric Team), Department 2 (SAM-CGE), and Department 3 (Systems Dynamics).
    \nIn general, and for the 3 departments, external consultants and experts affiliated to other research or academic institutions might also join MUINP. They will be carefully selected, according to specific criteria, such as highly advanced modelling skills and a strong background in the relevant areas and topics. Furthermore, it is essential to work closely in partnership with renowned relevant institutions, such as Cairo University, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, ECES, ERF, Ministry of Planning, Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of Egypt and IDSC. Other international and regional organizations might include IMF, Arab Planning Institute, Arab Monetary Fund, ILO, IFPRI, and ESCWA. In this regard, MUINP is seeking additional funding resources from international partners to support the establishment of the unit and capacity building of its staff, for the short and medium terms. Suggested donors to approach are, for example, the EU, USAID, \u2026 (Please see the preliminary budget for the MUINP in Table 4 in the Annex)
    \n<\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row css=”.vc_custom_1684771721025{padding-top: 98px !important;padding-bottom: 80px !important;background: #f7f7f7 url(https:\/\/inpdemo3.imholding.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/bgd.jpg?id=2757) !important;background-position: center !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;background-size: cover !important;}” el_class=”overlay-dark backGF backGOp” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=”Structure of the MUINP” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:2.75em|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:42px” use_theme_fonts=”yes” text_transform=”text-capitalize” font_weight=”700″ skin=”light” letter_spacing=”0px” animation_delay=”400″ el_class=”mb-2 headingLineBG headingLineBW” animation_type=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692447073462{margin-bottom: 40px !important;}”]
    <\/i><\/strong><\/div>

    INP President<\/h4>
    <\/div><\/div><\/div>
    <\/i><\/strong><\/div>

    Modelling Unit<\/h4>
    (MUINP)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>
    <\/i><\/strong><\/div>

    Macro-Econometric Modelling<\/h4>
    (Policy Analysis and Forecasting)<\/div><\/div><\/div>
    <\/i><\/strong><\/div>

    Economywide Modelling<\/h4>
    (Policy Simulations)<\/div><\/div><\/div>
    <\/i><\/strong><\/div>

    System Dynamics<\/h4>
    <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1683944801992{padding-top: 80px !important;padding-bottom: 80px !important;background-color: #f9f9f9 !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_row_inner gap=”20″ el_class=”proud-card-boxes”][vc_column_inner el_class=”m-b-md” width=”1\/2″]
    The Institute of National Planning has established a Modelling Unit (MUINP) since 2020.
    \nMUINP aims to apply various evidence-based methodologies, including:<\/p>\n
      \n
    • Macro -econometric models,<\/li>\n
    • CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) economy wide modeling,<\/li>\n
    • System Dynamics.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      <\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner el_class=”m-b-md” width=”1\/2″]

      The main goal of MUINP is to provide the policy decision makers, at the Ministry of Planning, or other relevant Ministries with evidence-based policy alternatives, by conducting policy analysis and forecasting.<\/p>\n

      A team of diligent researchers (10 lecturers, 12 teaching assistants and 5 research assistants) who are affiliated to the Institute of National Planning have already joined the MUINP, aiming to form a Policy modelling team.<\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n

      [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1683055236296{border-bottom-width: 1px !important;padding-top: 40px !important;padding-bottom: 30px !important;background-color: #f9f9f9 !important;border-bottom-color: rgba(0,0,0,0.1) !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D” el_class=”overlay-dark bg-white backGF”][vc_column el_class=”NewsHome” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_custom_heading text=”To accomplish the above-mentioned objectives, the MUINP
      \nis structured in three major departments:” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:1.85em|text_align:center|line_height:1.3″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” text_transform=”text-capitalize” font_weight=”700″ skin=”dark” letter_spacing=”0px” animation_delay=”400″ el_class=”mb-5 headingLineBG” animation_type=”fadeInUp”]

      Department 1<\/h3><\/div>

      (Macro-econometric Team)<\/h4>
      <\/div><\/div><\/article>

      Department 2<\/h3><\/div>

      (SAM-CGE)<\/h4>
      <\/div><\/div><\/article>

      Department 3<\/h3><\/div>

      (Systems Dynamics)<\/h4>
      <\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/section>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1692463284504{padding-top: 98px !important;padding-bottom: 80px !important;background: #f7f7f7 url(https:\/\/inpdemo3.imholding.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/bgd.jpg?id=2757) !important;background-position: center !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;background-size: cover !important;}” el_class=”overlay-dark backGF backGOp” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=”Modelling Unit – Objectives” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:2.75em|text_align:center|color:%23ffffff|line_height:42px” use_theme_fonts=”yes” text_transform=”text-capitalize” font_weight=”700″ skin=”light” letter_spacing=”0px” animation_delay=”400″ el_class=”mb-2 headingLineBG headingLineBW” animation_type=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692463645768{margin-bottom: 40px !important;}”][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/3″]
      <\/i><\/div><\/div>

      Building a Macro-econometric model that helps in forecasting different economic variables.<\/h3><\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/3″]
      <\/i><\/div><\/div>

      Using CGE modelling for policy analysis and running simulations<\/h3><\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/3″]
      <\/i><\/div><\/div>

      Strengthening the modelling skills of the MUINP Staff, by providing capacity building on macro econometric, CGE modelling and Systems dynamics.<\/h3><\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/3″]
      <\/i><\/div><\/div>

      Helping in drafting concise policy notes that are related to economic policy alternatives.<\/h3><\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/3″]
      <\/i><\/div><\/div>

      Applying System Dynamics Approach, in the area of Integrated development Planning<\/h3><\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/3″]
      <\/i><\/div><\/div>

      Organizing joint workshops to discuss the relevant research results, in collaboration with potential academic and international stakeholders.<\/h3><\/div> <\/div>[\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1692469063544{padding-top: 80px !important;padding-bottom: 40px !important;background-color: #f7f7f7 !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=”Modelling Unit- Current Progress” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:2.75em|text_align:center|color:%23333333|line_height:42px” use_theme_fonts=”yes” text_transform=”text-capitalize” font_weight=”700″ letter_spacing=”0px” animation_delay=”400″ el_class=”mb-2 headingLineBG ” animation_type=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692469681973{margin-bottom: 10px !important;}”][vc_custom_heading text=”Two Major Training courses took
      \nplace during 2022
      \n” font_container=”tag:h4|font_size:1.75em|text_align:center|color:%23333333|line_height:1.5″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” text_transform=”text-capitalize” font_weight=”300″ letter_spacing=”0px” animation_delay=”400″ el_class=”mb-5″ animation_type=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692470089998{margin-bottom: 40px !important;}”][vc_row_inner content_placement=”middle”][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_single_image image=”5104″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” animation_delay=”1100″ floating_start_pos=”top” label=””][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692468978285{margin-bottom: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 0px !important;}”]Using Macro-econometric modelling in policy analysis, in collaboration with the Arab Institute for Planning in Kuwait.[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner content_placement=”middle”][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692468996944{margin-bottom: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 0px !important;}”]-Social Accounting Matrix and Computable General Equilibrium Model ( CGE )- Part1 , in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_single_image image=”5106″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” animation_delay=”1100″ floating_start_pos=”top” label=””][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1692470065601{padding-top: 80px !important;padding-bottom: 80px !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=”Modelling Unit- Current Progress” font_container=”tag:h2|font_size:2.75em|text_align:center|color:%23333333|line_height:42px” use_theme_fonts=”yes” text_transform=”text-capitalize” font_weight=”700″ letter_spacing=”0px” animation_delay=”400″ el_class=”mb-2 headingLineBG ” animation_type=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692470135457{margin-bottom: 40px !important;}”][vc_row_inner content_placement=”middle”][vc_column_inner][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692469395149{margin-bottom: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 0px !important;}”]<\/p>\n
        \n
      • Drafting Policy Research Papers in the following research areas ( Still ongoing)<\/b><\/li>\n
      • Estimation of Demand equations : Consumption, Investment, Export and Import, as a starting point towards building a Macro-econometric Model.<\/li>\n
      • Macro and distributional Impact of Current Devaluation of Exchange rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        [vc_row wrap_container=”yes” css=”.vc_custom_1692445588024{padding-top: 80px !important;padding-bottom: 40px !important;}” conditional_render=”%5B%7B%22value_role%22%3A%22administrator%22%7D%5D”][vc_column][vc_row_inner content_placement=”middle”][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_single_image image=”4679″ img_size=”full” alignment=”center” style=”vc_box_outline” animation_delay=”1100″ floating_start_pos=”top”][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1\/2″][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeInUp” css=”.vc_custom_1692443317276{margin-bottom: 0px !important;padding-bottom: 0px !important;}”] The Modelling Unit at the Institute of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"footnotes":"","_tec_slr_enabled":"","_tec_slr_layout":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"class_list":["post-5090","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nModelling Unit - 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